Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Cameron Norrie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5acfc458ad433b5cf278afe80b9b1378de72d0bf3be8c008f4c10f1929dd211
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Norrie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Norrie | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Medvedev | 71c | 2,400$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.92 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Norrie | 13c | 784.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Medvedev | 71c | 768.97$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.18 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Medvedev | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Medvedev | 75c | 397.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Norrie | 27c | 364.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Norrie | 30c | 351.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Norrie | 25c | 213.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Medvedev | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Norrie | 28c | 176.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Medvedev | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…8a2dbacked Medvedev | 73c | 137.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Medvedev | 75c | 132.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…2835backed Norrie | 31c | 121.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Norrie | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Norrie | 32c | 109.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Norrie | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Norrie | 27c | 98.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Medvedev | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Norrie | 27c | 91.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Norrie | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Medvedev | 71c | 22.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Medvedev | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…1713backed Medvedev | 73c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.