Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa62e0c286ba72268e951606d1ce5f77cdebd30a573568d83b3a29cf1c2ba2360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 949.6$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.8 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 50c | 582$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 529.91$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.68 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 503$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.56 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 39c | 489.41$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 477.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.91 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 474.15$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.14 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 53c | 409.87$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 43c | 338.89$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 47c | 206.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 30c | 180.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 162.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 70c | 120.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 56c | 104.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 56c | 88.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 37c | 84.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 47c | 81.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 58c | 78.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 32c | 74.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb0…e4fcbacked Over | 33c | 74.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 20cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 42c | 68.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 65.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 49c | 59.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 66c | 57.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a50…da30backed Over | 40c | 36.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 29.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Over | 51c | 23.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 60c | 19.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Under | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 78c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Under | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.