Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Alcaraz vs. Rinderknech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa646d3491ff0f92fed598946340b66d2dc2c284313f9b6b008cc983c8f9ad0f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Rinderknech | 12c | 5,158$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.01 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Rinderknech | 10c | 4,809$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.94 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Rinderknech | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Rinderknech | 10c | 1,301$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rinderknech | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Rinderknech | 11c | 910$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Rinderknech | 13c | 860.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Rinderknech | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rinderknech | 9c | 496.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Rinderknech | 11c | 458$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…d636backed Rinderknech | 17c | 295.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Rinderknech | 8c | 240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…b5a2backed Rinderknech | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Rinderknech | 13c | 189.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.