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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,569
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,569 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes15c358.64$53 inWon+$305.83,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes22c180.81$40 inWon+$140.812437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+61.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes17c132.87$23 inWon+$109.873,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes19c125.04$24 inWon+$101.0419336.3%70 W · 123 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No60c107.71$65 inLost-$65.0512,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No13c87.03$11 inLost-$11.334,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No24c80$20 inLost-$19.5714161.7%87 W · 54 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No80c76.17$61 inLost-$60.565,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No39c74.46$29 inLost-$28.991,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes55c74.24$41 inWon+$33.4745167%302 W · 149 L+39.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes19c56.27$11 inWon+$45.763426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No27c37$10 inLost-$10.12,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inLost-$23.365,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c30$24 inLost-$242,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No58c30$17 inLost-$17.3813861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c28.84$22 inLost-$22.510,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No78c23$18 inLost-$17.9446559.1%275 W · 190 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc31f…f04abacked Yes50c22.5$11 inWon+$11.259683.3%80 W · 16 L+20.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+55.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0022…c966backed No78c20$16 inLost-$15.65269.2%36 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0aa…3259backed No78c19.99$16 inLost-$15.65058%29 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No77c19.97$15 inLost-$15.383,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.