Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6977b076ae4490a666a857a2fd325770213f1f8ad511815f8c2ff6681705115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 74c | 611.38$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 317.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 305.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 11c | 296.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 271.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…dc8bbacked Yes | 28c | 192.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 185.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 2,837 | 11.2%317 W · 2,520 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 168.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…d4d2backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 10c | 158.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 32c | 125.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…83c8backed Yes | 25c | 122$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 15c | 120.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 72c | 107.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 25c | 100.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…19c5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 23c | 95.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…9b7cbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 284 | 40.5%115 W · 169 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…5d4ebacked Yes | 34c | 57.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0c…7641backed No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4c…ee3ebacked No | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,651 | 27.7%458 W · 1,193 L | +118.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c0…32b9backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 38c | 28.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 69c | 25.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…f3a3backed No | 76c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.