Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rome: Ariana Arseneault vs Monika Ekstrand
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6ab4ca41e6b39c86dee00221bef1a26a5e9aaed32c255631edaccae9e896168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ariana Arseneaultof Ariana Arseneault, Monika Ekstrand
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ariana Arseneault | 62c | 3,037$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Monika Ekstrand | 37c | 1,354$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.98 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Monika Ekstrand | 43c | 596.09$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.64 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Monika Ekstrand | 45c | 320.04$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Monika Ekstrand | 30c | 252.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Monika Ekstrand | 49c | 198.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Monika Ekstrand | 38c | 197.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ariana Arseneault | 62c | 159.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Monika Ekstrand | 36c | 154.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Ariana Arseneault | 51c | 128.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Monika Ekstrand | 37c | 90.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Monika Ekstrand | 29c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Monika Ekstrand | 38c | 67.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Monika Ekstrand | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367d…7312backed Monika Ekstrand | 37c | 61.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Monika Ekstrand | 38c | 59.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Monika Ekstrand | 37c | 58.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Monika Ekstrand | 38c | 51.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Monika Ekstrand | 48c | 51.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Monika Ekstrand | 31c | 50.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Monika Ekstrand | 26c | 44.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ariana Arseneault | 59c | 39.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Monika Ekstrand | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Monika Ekstrand | 32c | 36.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Ariana Arseneault | 58c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Ariana Arseneault | 62c | 22.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Monika Ekstrand | 48c | 21.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Ariana Arseneault | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Ariana Arseneault | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.