NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa772c3b7fc047ebb1f00ea126539889231d0a86ed0f7af1467151e32c2dea181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Devils, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Red Wings | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Devils | 32c | 714.69$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Devils | 34c | 590$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad34…4386backed Devils | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Devils | 34c | 290.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Devils | 32c | 230.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Devils | 32c | 222.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Devils | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Red Wings | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Devils | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…138cbacked Devils | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Red Wings | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Devils | 32c | 51.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Red Wings | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…f70abacked Red Wings | 68c | 47.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Red Wings | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…1dc7backed Red Wings | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…86e1backed Red Wings | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…8ab6backed Red Wings | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…d154backed Red Wings | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Red Wings | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…85bfbacked Red Wings | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…5ae7backed Red Wings | 68c | 28.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Red Wings | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. DevilsDevils won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.