Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Peru Rejects vs Heroic (BO5) - PGL Wallachia: Americas Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8045a5a106d044b97750d512ce0ea5aa698d9a0a440d5ef2fb8c07d13d145c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Peru Rejects, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Heroic | 41c | 2,929$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.22 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Peru Rejects | 58c | 1,334$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.69 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Heroic | 36c | 1,173$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.82 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Peru Rejects | 68c | 736.76$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Peru Rejects | 58c | 634.05$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.57 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Peru Rejects | 68c | 441.16$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.67 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Peru Rejects | 65c | 399.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Peru Rejects | 60c | 375.59$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.46 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…1f75backed Peru Rejects | 53c | 238.36$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Heroic | 62c | 218.82$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Peru Rejects | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Peru Rejects | 33c | 130.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Peru Rejects | 40c | 103.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Heroic | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Heroic | 20c | 92.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Peru Rejects | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…9168backed Heroic | 62c | 64.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Heroic | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…d220backed Peru Rejects | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed Peru Rejects | 63c | 47.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Heroic | 60c | 46.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Heroic | 73c | 40.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Peru Rejects | 58c | 34.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…846ebacked Peru Rejects | 62c | 32.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Heroic | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7dc1backed Peru Rejects | 67c | 28.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Heroic | 40c | 27.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Heroic | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Peru Rejects vs Heroic (BO5) - PGL Wallachia: Americas Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Peru Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Peru Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Peru Rejects vs Heroic - Game 3 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.