Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa85fd65970aa38502650c7d5004ab7c4059fe64ab822a17e9e0847b0de926baf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 250.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 161.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 145.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 75c | 136.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 76c | 133.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 129.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 75c | 118.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 103.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 102.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 34c | 102.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 98.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 24c | 84.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…4e1bbacked Yes | 27c | 79.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 76.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 74c | 71.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 67.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 67.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…b067backed No | 75c | 66.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 64.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 27c | 64.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 30c | 56.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 35c | 55.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…d266backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 31c | 43.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 38.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 77c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 76c | 23.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 73c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.