Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Liberty Flames vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa87997156e2fbcfcf2e9cf6ede025252737e9fcacdca360963f529daad1fd2d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina State Wolfpackof Liberty Flames, North Carolina State Wolfpack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Liberty Flames | 0c | 8,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Liberty Flames | 12c | 4,931$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.71 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Liberty Flames | 16c | 4,787$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Liberty Flames | 10c | 3,601$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.14 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…0d05backed Liberty Flames | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Liberty Flames | 11c | 2,133$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Liberty Flames | 12c | 2,083$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…999fbacked Liberty Flames | 13c | 1,516$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Liberty Flames | 11c | 826.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Liberty Flames | 11c | 789.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…5408backed Liberty Flames | 2c | 491.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Liberty Flames | 12c | 327$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Liberty Flames | 12c | 308$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Liberty Flames | 15c | 284$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Liberty Flames | 12c | 257.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Liberty Flames | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Liberty Flames | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Liberty Flames | 7c | 156.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Liberty Flames | 11c | 103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…8ae3backed Liberty Flames | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Liberty Flames | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5d…4c40backed Liberty Flames | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Liberty Flames | 13c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Liberty Flames | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.