Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8824072eb9dc65b81e3e0a600b1191fce113244c0470556b381cc59266dbec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 7c | 379.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…3ca8backed No | 10c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…d36ebacked No | 50c | 196.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…3862backed No | 50c | 196.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…ed04backed No | 50c | 195.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…49fabacked No | 50c | 194.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…33c6backed No | 50c | 193.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c3…aa04backed No | 50c | 193.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…68dabacked No | 50c | 192.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f4…8025backed No | 50c | 188.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…5b8fbacked No | 50c | 188.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…9c30backed No | 50c | 187.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…bee2backed No | 50c | 187.45$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc962…b3d9backed No | 50c | 187.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…a0bbbacked No | 50c | 187.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50db…1d65backed No | 50c | 187.28$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…cb1dbacked No | 50c | 187.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d3…0be7backed No | 50c | 187.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…61f7backed No | 50c | 186.94$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b3…dc0cbacked No | 50c | 186.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…536bbacked No | 50c | 186.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…57e2backed No | 50c | 186.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…2fb8backed No | 50c | 186.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe851…8395backed No | 50c | 186.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…391dbacked No | 50c | 186.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…d12ebacked No | 50c | 186.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…8ae0backed No | 50c | 186.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…e7b8backed No | 50c | 186.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…9270backed No | 50c | 186.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…915abacked No | 50c | 186.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…7e72backed No | 50c | 186.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…5138backed No | 50c | 185.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…fee1backed No | 50c | 185.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4a…a880backed No | 50c | 185.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…5169backed No | 50c | 185.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…a6cdbacked No | 50c | 185.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fc3dbacked No | 50c | 185.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…6b73backed No | 50c | 185.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…b6f0backed No | 50c | 185.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…e99fbacked No | 50c | 185.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6234…00a8backed No | 50c | 185.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…4366backed No | 50c | 184.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…cd69backed No | 50c | 184.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe5…d4bfbacked No | 50c | 184.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…2c93backed No | 50c | 184.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…20cbbacked No | 50c | 184.64$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…a853backed No | 50c | 184.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…0817backed No | 50c | 184.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…9931backed No | 50c | 184.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…b250backed No | 50c | 184.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…41c0backed No | 50c | 184.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…c208backed No | 50c | 184.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…201fbacked No | 50c | 184.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…2bd0backed No | 50c | 184.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…bae4backed No | 50c | 184.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…b297backed No | 50c | 182.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…fb69backed No | 50c | 180.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…dcbcbacked No | 50c | 177.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e3…4e41backed No | 50c | 170.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e13…055dbacked No | 50c | 170.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…92fabacked No | 50c | 170.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…be3bbacked No | 50c | 169.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of April?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of April?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of April?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of April?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.