Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9cf681c266f1a0893b5b77649a8de1b6612661e0cc4f4fec0ac3af3c095e929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 73c | 726.22$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.47 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…bc2dbacked No | 36c | 553.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb36…12a2backed No | 11c | 403.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ec…ac1cbacked No | 4c | 241.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 5c | 216.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 51c | 184$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 50c | 142$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed Yes | 47c | 136.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 71c | 60.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 56.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 40c | 50.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 67c | 27.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…c27cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of April?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of April?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of April?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of April?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.