Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8b5450da65f5f3b34f35e94899df63730b98f59c2bad9131a8d9225f8be56ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 364.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.15 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed AVULUS | 43c | 331.16$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…6e27backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 253.77$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed AVULUS | 20c | 228.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 206.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked AVULUS | 37c | 203.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed AVULUS | 52c | 193.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 186.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked AVULUS | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed AVULUS | 49c | 109.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Pipsqueak+4 | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked AVULUS | 52c | 88.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AVULUS | 15c | 87.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed AVULUS | 35c | 76.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…34d8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 68.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked AVULUS | 46c | 52.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 49.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed AVULUS | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…97b2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 27.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…9b3bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Game Handicap: AVL (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5) Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.