NHL · resolved market
AHL: Laval Rocket vs. Rochester Americans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8bcd2e40b13419c6697a6e10e31c8740b16fda41736a585869e70744b848ef9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Laval Rocketof Laval Rocket, Rochester Americans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Rochester Americans | 47c | 3,886$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.72 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Laval Rocket | 54c | 1,887$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.61 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Laval Rocket | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Laval Rocket | 54c | 368.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…70e4backed Laval Rocket | 54c | 221$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Rochester Americans | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…891bbacked Rochester Americans | 48c | 62.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Laval Rocket | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Laval Rocket | 54c | 45.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Laval Rocket | 78c | 36.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Laval Rocket | 54c | 34.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c63…83b3backed Laval Rocket | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Laval Rocket | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d0ddbacked Laval Rocket | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.