Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jesper de Jong
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa90b9ddb12818f600d0d66c7fcf79d536943912139447541d23d2221595958e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Jong
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Jong | 0c | 12,247$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Jong | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Jong | 21c | 1,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.96 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jong | 12c | 1,049$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Jong | 13c | 606.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 582.69$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 550$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd175…bb3abacked Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…a86fbacked Jong | 6c | 382.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 377.73$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 211.45$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Jong | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Jong | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 128.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Auger-Aliassime | 79c | 126.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Jong | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Jong | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 75.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Jong | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Jong | 33c | 50.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0631…bc9cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 77c | 38.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…8849backed Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…da05backed Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…05fbbacked Auger-Aliassime | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.