Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marin Cilic vs Novak Djokovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa939a8a12dfccd75b6da606a79d8e00d8288eaa22a9cb38f297f0b6f1ae85887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Djokovicof Cilic, Djokovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Cilic | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Cilic | 13c | 4,370$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.42 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Cilic | 30c | 2,000$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cilic | 18c | 1,601$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.6 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cilic | 13c | 1,526$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Cilic | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cilic | 9c | 783.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cilic | 18c | 731.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cilic | 9c | 718.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Cilic | 2c | 718.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Cilic | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Cilic | 20c | 448.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Cilic | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cilic | 10c | 382$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Cilic | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…4c0abacked Cilic | 12c | 215$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…6a3bbacked Cilic | 11c | 164.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1d…f1a8backed Cilic | 27c | 144.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Cilic | 19c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cilic | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Djokovic | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.