CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs GUESS - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa96f5819bf3aa74a675a7ea03ef76e3d0294f93f82ae87e32fd45c82e1767396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof Fire Flux Esports, GUESS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x296d…4f2ebacked GUESS | 45c | 324.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…ca3fbacked GUESS | 57c | 275.91$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 358 | 47.5%170 W · 188 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…9590backed Fire Flux Esports | 54c | 187.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Fire Flux Esports | 57c | 106.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0f59backed GUESS | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Fire Flux Esports | 41c | 102$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…3ab3backed Fire Flux Esports | 78c | 100.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Fire Flux Esports | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked GUESS | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b7…82a2backed Fire Flux Esports | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed GUESS | 17c | 68.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed GUESS | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked GUESS | 33c | 53.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked GUESS | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed GUESS | 35c | 28.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Fire Flux Esports | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Fire Flux Esports | 56c | 21.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs GUESS - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs GUESS (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Group DFire Flux Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs GUESS - Map 1 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.