CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs GUESS (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f85c10484d22a93f690680a4092a56c4c7bad25ca32cc57d4296337a687624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof Fire Flux Esports, GUESS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Fire Flux Esports | 66c | 687.58$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.02 | 2,205 | 47.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e8…ebb7backed GUESS | 19c | 542.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…fbb0backed GUESS | 41c | 484.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Fire Flux Esports | 70c | 455.81$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 4,220 | 49.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L | +61.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Fire Flux Esports | 61c | 441.17$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.64 | 3,217 | 51.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L | +89.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fire Flux Esports | 69c | 392.43$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 3,415 | 29.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L | -275.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed GUESS | 42c | 349.26$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 2,309 | 45.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L | -62.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…4f2ebacked GUESS | 30c | 288.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fire Flux Esports | 73c | 180.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Fire Flux Esports | 70c | 147.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 660 | 72.4%478 W · 182 L | +117.6wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed GUESS | 36c | 115.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed GUESS | 10c | 100.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 834 | 43.6%364 W · 470 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed GUESS | 15c | 76.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked GUESS | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,318 | 51.7%682 W · 636 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Fire Flux Esports | 63c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed GUESS | 29c | 59.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed GUESS | 36c | 54.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 333 | 27.9%93 W · 240 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed GUESS | 36c | 50.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 97 | 29.9%29 W · 68 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Fire Flux Esports | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,084 | 47%979 W · 1,105 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed GUESS | 34c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 216 | 52.8%114 W · 102 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fire Flux Esports | 72c | 32.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,828 | 47.6%871 W · 957 L | -54.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fire Flux Esports | 57c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,608 | 30.9%807 W · 1,801 L | -103.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Fire Flux Esports | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 690 | 41.9%289 W · 401 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs GUESS (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs GUESS - Map 1 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs GUESS - Map 2 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.