NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Flames
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa99994539a88c213fe78084a92c7877ea21d1555cbf2d1f5612a4f7ffe96a43d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Blues, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Flames | 1c | 13,004$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…71b0backed Flames | 54c | 6,887$3,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,718.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…6961backed Blues | 46c | 6,887$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,718.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Blues | 43c | 1,583$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.43 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Flames | 57c | 1,065$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed Blues | 45c | 1,017$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.28 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Flames | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Blues | 42c | 823.13$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.04 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Blues | 44c | 809.65$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.02 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Blues | 50c | 400$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Flames | 59c | 370$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.3 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db4…487abacked Flames | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Flames | 56c | 311.07$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Flames | 56c | 227$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 244 | 57.4%140 W · 104 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Blues | 78c | 211$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Flames | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf5…40e4backed Flames | 58c | 172.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Flames | 59c | 119.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Blues | 49c | 101.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Flames | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 212 | 55.7%118 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Flames | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Flames | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Flames | 37c | 93.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…2261backed Flames | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Blues | 47c | 78.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…161dbacked Flames | 59c | 78.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Flames | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Blues | 45c | 62.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f4…61b1backed Flames | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Flames | 52c | 51.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Blues | 63c | 50.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Flames | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Blues | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Flames | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Flames | 59c | 26.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 285 | 42.1%120 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…947fbacked Flames | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Flames | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.