CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - FRAGgg Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9a060f6162c1617bcaea63bbdb2d32fb18264c4ebae37cab7f01748e9451ecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $295,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Rune Eaters | 0c | 290,392$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.39 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Rune Eaters | 11c | 594.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed Rune Eaters | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 261 | 55.2%144 W · 117 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Rune Eaters | 11c | 277.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…c0b2backed HOTU | 71c | 253.29$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 207 | 50.7%105 W · 102 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…f178backed Rune Eaters | 21c | 234.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…36cfbacked Rune Eaters | 14c | 217.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 192.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Rune Eaters | 18c | 171.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Rune Eaters | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked HOTU | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 581 | 49.2%286 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…a491backed Rune Eaters | 26c | 77.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed HOTU | 66c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed HOTU | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 206 | 59.2%122 W · 84 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - FRAGgg Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 WinnerHOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.