Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9c62aacb12dfd889681d56c9c4357299e29214896a28d53d7eddb83161fc529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 54c | 857.74$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.84 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…b3c3backed Under | 58c | 569.84$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 540.19$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.3 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 56c | 444$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 45c | 335.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 23c | 267$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Over | 44c | 248.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 55c | 245.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 35c | 244.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…4e1ebacked Under | 64c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 56c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee74…3bcebacked Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-0.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.