Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Adolfo Vallejo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9f3f71c730039e6c0c72a868ceef6d070100fbf7c8aac6426d225bbf9086d88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vallejoof Pacheco, Vallejo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc181…0992backed Vallejo | 57c | 847.14$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.14 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Vallejo | 58c | 599.98$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Pacheco | 43c | 453$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.79 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacheco | 32c | 403.18$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacheco | 11c | 224.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Vallejo | 61c | 204.36$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Pacheco | 42c | 171.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacheco | 37c | 145.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pacheco | 20c | 100.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Vallejo | 54c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pacheco | 23c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacheco | 42c | 76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Pacheco | 39c | 75.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Pacheco | 28c | 74.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pacheco | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Pacheco | 42c | 46.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…2e91backed Vallejo | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Pacheco | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Pacheco | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Pacheco | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.