Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa1d9d9fcda4e81a259d821169becb4517c40007d80e1281acf6eb7ac8590047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Winter Bearof Winter Bear, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 1,620$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.75 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…b8f7backed Winter Bear | 35c | 736.22$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Winter Bear | 54c | 600$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Winter Bear | 20c | 585.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.23 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Winter Bear | 40c | 479.58$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.13 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 349.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 345.71$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Winter Bear | 45c | 331.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.06 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Rune Eaters | 76c | 325$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dfa6backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed Winter Bear | 66c | 297.02$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Rune Eaters | 41c | 260.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…84f6backed Winter Bear | 28c | 241$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 224.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fb…f0d5backed Winter Bear | 55c | 217.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Rune Eaters | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Winter Bear | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Rune Eaters | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Rune Eaters | 76c | 171.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Winter Bear | 20c | 141.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…583abacked Rune Eaters | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…e599backed Winter Bear | 67c | 120.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -7.6wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Winter Bear | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Winter Bear | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune Eaters | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Winter Bear | 37c | 92.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed Rune Eaters | 23c | 75.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Rune Eaters | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…1718backed Rune Eaters | 26c | 53.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…ff61backed Winter Bear | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…c2a1backed Winter Bear | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Rune Eaters | 38c | 46.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Rune Eaters | 69c | 38.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf622…1c39backed Winter Bear | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked Winter Bear | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked Rune Eaters | 78c | 15.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…cc45backed Winter Bear | 79c | 12.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerWinter Bear won
- Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Winter Bear (+1.5)Winter Bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.