Tennis · resolved market
ITF Toyama: Moeka Miyata vs Haruka Nishimura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa3396ec57da3ae62b2e909989fbd98addd458f98a99e0edc45c265ee43656ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moeka Miyataof Moeka Miyata, Haruka Nishimura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Haruka Nishimura | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Moeka Miyata | 60c | 472.81$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.77 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…6caabacked Haruka Nishimura | 18c | 460.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Moeka Miyata | 17c | 320$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.8 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Moeka Miyata | 76c | 296.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Moeka Miyata | 74c | 276.46$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…55aabacked Moeka Miyata | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +10.2wins | +0.21per pick | 10cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Haruka Nishimura | 28c | 193.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Moeka Miyata | 72c | 162.12$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Moeka Miyata | 76c | 153$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Haruka Nishimura | 17c | 148$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Haruka Nishimura | 22c | 63.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…2b99backed Haruka Nishimura | 37c | 46.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Moeka Miyata | 72c | 41.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…e961backed Moeka Miyata | 72c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.