Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Arizona vs. Portland State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa6b3a8c7e9c5bf468b9c9c506087befba3670f5c89a61cbbf1c13fd7fbae92c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Stateof Northern Arizona, Portland State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Northern Arizona | 2c | 4,444$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Portland State | 79c | 4,160$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.59 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Northern Arizona | 3c | 1,416$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +629.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Northern Arizona | 29c | 1,189$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.16 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Northern Arizona | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…6dfdbacked Northern Arizona | 8c | 775.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Northern Arizona | 31c | 602.06$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.64 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…bc0cbacked Northern Arizona | 10c | 583.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…2f5bbacked Northern Arizona | 10c | 316.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa860…98f2backed Northern Arizona | 22c | 267.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Northern Arizona | 30c | 224.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2590backed Northern Arizona | 21c | 165.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Northern Arizona | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 181 | 29.3%53 W · 128 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Northern Arizona | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…0f53backed Northern Arizona | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…905cbacked Portland State | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e24…44b1backed Northern Arizona | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…7f4bbacked Northern Arizona | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…ff31backed Portland State | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…35d1backed Portland State | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…0c46backed Northern Arizona | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…e56bbacked Portland State | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…0d50backed Portland State | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…0679backed Northern Arizona | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…da8cbacked Portland State | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…0e7abacked Northern Arizona | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…a9f4backed Portland State | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…63e2backed Portland State | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…cc92backed Portland State | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc4…f39bbacked Portland State | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13da…40dfbacked Portland State | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985f…a5bebacked Portland State | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d8…5af0backed Portland State | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe74…9e0abacked Portland State | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb7…1643backed Portland State | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…df4bbacked Portland State | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.