Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac3a612b4ca01b7b1c6bc9862fcd16d6d7633eb0cd34a463d526d9523debe79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 69c | 323.37$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…e136backed Yes | 9c | 201.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 164.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 72c | 161.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 48c | 116.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 10c | 107$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 57c | 87.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b4…8706backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 62.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 57.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 39c | 48.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 31c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 34c | 34.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 64c | 32.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 73c | 28.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 25.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…82cbbacked Yes | 59c | 22.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 75c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…6114backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.