Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-08-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaae12fcf0e2e2b95287d22ef3f3ebac8ca43bd0780d179effc36c67d09318ad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 3c | 33,190$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.72 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…b6cbbacked Yes | 4c | 11,585$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 2c | 7,751$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 2c | 6,843$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,338$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.02 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,015$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 4c | 3,828$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 4c | 1,338$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked Yes | 4c | 600.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 3c | 562$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Yes | 4c | 518.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…c372backed Yes | 5c | 501.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Yes | 6c | 363.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…3e4abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 4c | 292.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-08-20?this page
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.