Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25bcd7837e45ff897bfcc6fe70ec04cd955f68a467a9848ad9a82b70fde4b452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 14c | 16,806$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.19 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…e6b8backed No | 2c | 16,413$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 14c | 13,449$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.16 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 2c | 9,721$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.7 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 2c | 9,511$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.2 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 2c | 9,418$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 3c | 4,970$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 4,847$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 14c | 3,571$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.94 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 14c | 3,428$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.31 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…c950backed No | 7c | 2,521$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 14c | 2,065$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.02 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 2c | 2,063$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 19c | 2,054$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.64 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…ff0fbacked No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed No | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…8db7backed Yes | 78c | 1,472$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 2c | 1,440$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 2c | 1,335$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebc…89c8backed Yes | 80c | 1,313$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…e974backed No | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 19c | 1,141$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.44 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 16c | 1,107$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.9 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4c6cbacked No | 1c | 1,065$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ef…befcbacked No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 18c | 856.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 18c | 575.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 3c | 479$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked No | 20c | 429.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 22c | 422$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 22c | 372$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 16c | 353.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 14c | 338.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 14c | 219.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…50a2backed No | 14c | 217$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 18c | 186.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 15c | 171.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 17c | 156$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked No | 14c | 132.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…98dcbacked No | 13c | 118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 80c | 101$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 16c | 100.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…3e21backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0b…7847backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 14c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 20c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 76c | 45.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-20?this page
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-08-20?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.