Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab24df7129f7e62501f59f477bb8318b321ae1b4d9de837d1e71403e5d495811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 282.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 70c | 199.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 189.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 178.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 174.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 26c | 130.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 17c | 129.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 123.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…61d3backed No | 71c | 119.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 15c | 112.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 102.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 95.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 20c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 76c | 73.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 74c | 70.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 61.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 19c | 58.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 58.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 56.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…6c94backed Yes | 21c | 53.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 21c | 52.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 21c | 49.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 25c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 71c | 41.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 28c | 37.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 29c | 34.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 33.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 71c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 16.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 75c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.