Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb28c93e99c9a521263d542805749943da8be84ffe00147be32b957fd7e34d5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ce0…59d5backed No | 0c | 90,010$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 61c | 386.48$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 69c | 351.27$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 22c | 312.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…1e16backed No | 32c | 242.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 46c | 239.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 55c | 200.66$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 187.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 24c | 176.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 25c | 145.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 74c | 141.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 65c | 132.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…508ebacked Yes | 77c | 127.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 23c | 123.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 20c | 100.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 65c | 98.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 45c | 97.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 80c | 95.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 94.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 62c | 86.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 67c | 76.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 80c | 73.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 46c | 72.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed No | 43c | 67.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 44c | 67.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa480…7205backed Yes | 75c | 65.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 42c | 58.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 24c | 57.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 80c | 56.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 42c | 56.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…33a9backed Yes | 56c | 51.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 76c | 45.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 56c | 44.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 68c | 42.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 42.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 73c | 40.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 40.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 54c | 40.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 38.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 76c | 38.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 64c | 35.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 78c | 34.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 53c | 34.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 66c | 34.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4f…95edbacked No | 36c | 33.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 76c | 31.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 62c | 30.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 50c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 67c | 30.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 73c | 26.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…bbf9backed Yes | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 56c | 25.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 66c | 25.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 75c | 25.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 70c | 22.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 79c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 75c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed Yes | 77c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 66c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 70c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.