Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab47abd342f5ed438bb98087e9aad129c8e1ea9b3804d3f14ead3421e1a0c773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 23c | 1,073$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.81 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…4d3cbacked No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 696.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x866c…070fbacked No | 6c | 376.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…8f6ebacked No | 8c | 351.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 13c | 295.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 12c | 291.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 9c | 233.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 79c | 191.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed No | 10c | 179.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 21c | 104$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 65c | 101.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 13c | 77.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…e756backed Yes | 73c | 57.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 76c | 54.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed Yes | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…4853backed Yes | 77c | 21.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…7627backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 39°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.