Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5cfbdaf174a4d792ee92a87a47a1792122f3b3deca6efc4a9fa1f49a3945a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 43c | 17,764$7,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,125.73 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 6c | 4,187$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.54 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 47c | 2,105$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.15 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 53c | 1,880$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.6 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 26c | 1,249$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.41 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 68c | 1,115$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,039$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.58 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 54c | 850$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 44c | 725$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 3c | 571.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…db9dbacked No | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 36c | 525$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 64c | 520$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…8e46backed No | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 21c | 497.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 42c | 476$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.08 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 43c | 469.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…f4cbbacked No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes | 44c | 363.64$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.64 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 50c | 278.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 70c | 257.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 47c | 251$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.03 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…0d29backed Yes | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 54c | 189.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Yes | 53c | 188.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 44c | 166.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 44c | 126.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 43c | 112.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 69c | 112.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Yes | 69c | 71.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 52c | 59.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 44c | 57.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 58c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed No | 41c | 55.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 72c | 55.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked No | 56c | 53.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 41c | 39.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b0…80ffbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 57c | 30.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…cde5backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1c6ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 70c | 26.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 54c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked Yes | 74c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-02-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.