Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabad516a8c289a15101bca8562875d0c2449a20d98ac51d8535c8499f15e204b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof Power Rangers, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e34…4480backed 4ikibamboni | 48c | 774.12$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.07 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed Power Rangers | 53c | 281.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…4819backed 4ikibamboni | 45c | 211$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Power Rangers | 52c | 180.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Power Rangers | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 287 | 45.6%131 W · 156 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Power Rangers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…fd91backed Power Rangers | 51c | 88.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Power Rangers | 52c | 80.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed 4ikibamboni | 48c | 54.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Power Rangers | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Power Rangers | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed 4ikibamboni | 53c | 38.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Power Rangers | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Power Rangers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,158 | 47.7%552 W · 606 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 WinnerPower Rangers won
- Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.