Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb7b13c75e40e11ea707f36b4196462af93e56c89cdafc77efe09dce1aaffdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 688.68$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.96 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 53c | 659.15$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.64 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 34c | 139$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 33c | 113$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 51c | 83.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Over | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Over | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Over | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Over | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Over | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.