Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabcb986893b8d002fa6884bcf338dfe328c5876644c2b59de9b8fc9a46285337
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,845 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,006$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 667.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 462.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 21c | 387.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 10c | 366.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 309.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 22c | 301.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 230.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 11c | 213.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 36c | 169.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 158$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 69c | 144.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…1a9ebacked Yes | 36c | 143.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 28c | 141.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 140.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 137.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 24c | 135.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 68c | 116$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…b0cebacked Yes | 18c | 107.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 95.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 22c | 95.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 92.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 88.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 29c | 80.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 73.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 30c | 72.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 69.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 62.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 61.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 56.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 49.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 37c | 46.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 42.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…c2d0backed Yes | 35c | 32.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 69c | 29.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 29.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 63c | 26.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…42e1backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 71c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 21.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 72c | 13.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.