Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6be856600798b03b36fbba59eb3141922e912a361c4578dbbee23f8f44b9bbec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,227 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 28c | 1,334$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 76c | 657.24$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 74c | 608.87$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 14c | 590.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked Yes | 69c | 536.22$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.77 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 530.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 75c | 447$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 76c | 325.91$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 9c | 313.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 75c | 305$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 48c | 207.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 68c | 206.06$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked No | 49c | 205.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 203.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 62c | 161.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 15c | 160.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 79c | 158.6$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 73c | 132.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 53c | 127.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 113.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 66c | 112.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 108.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d2…118bbacked No | 54c | 103.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 54c | 85.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 41c | 83.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 80c | 82.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 81.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 71c | 70.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…0f2abacked Yes | 75c | 66.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 46c | 55.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 43c | 53.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…3d07backed No | 48c | 53.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 35c | 50.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 68c | 50.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 34c | 50.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 50.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 37c | 50.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 80c | 47.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 39c | 47.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 31c | 44.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 42.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 36c | 41.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 41.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 41.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 31c | 40.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…18cbbacked Yes | 64c | 39.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 32c | 34.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…55efbacked Yes | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 30.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 71c | 26.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 25.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 68c | 24.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 58c | 24.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 43c | 23.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 71c | 21.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked Yes | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.