MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac1c36ad03f9dbc3f16b62bd914a4525a0f98fcc383d7c8d5580cd1426d923de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 675.64$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.74 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…d015backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 225.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 132.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 71.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 58.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Giants vs. DodgersDodgers won
- NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.