Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac20834d9271753df3651166004ce88c32ecc274ab0bea4b1cd3351fd01e3bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 17c | 9,734$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.31 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 3,898$2,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.08 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…984abacked Under | 26c | 3,123$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 3,022$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.09 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 2,729$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.47 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 74c | 2,688$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.31 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 11c | 2,679$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 20c | 1,946$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.81 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 12c | 941.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…1be1backed Under | 16c | 898.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Over | 20c | 672.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 31c | 574.96$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.94 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Over | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 20c | 446.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 34c | 385.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 74c | 385.07$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 9c | 345.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc374…cee1backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 25c | 268.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 25c | 253.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 26c | 202.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed Under | 7c | 189.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Over | 66c | 150.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Under | 10c | 134.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 26c | 118.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 26c | 77.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 36c | 54.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 79c | 48.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…c7a2backed Over | 78c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: FC Thun O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: Team to AdvanceFC Thun won
- Spread: FC Thun (-1.5)FC Thun won
- Spread: FC Thun (-2.5)FC Thun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.