Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Thun (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2fb10ae7539f32b4fb2b9fc3a0e1f33aa6fa2dce010c57dfcbae79f26b7805b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Thunof FC Thun, KF Víkingur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Thun | 35c | 18,161$6,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,720.81 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed KF Víkingur | 64c | 15,691$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed KF Víkingur | 65c | 15,386$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Thun | 37c | 2,499$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.81 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Thun | 38c | 2,153$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.06 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Thun | 36c | 2,145$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.9 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed FC Thun | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FC Thun | 35c | 1,507$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.7 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebc…89c8backed KF Víkingur | 56c | 890$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed FC Thun | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked FC Thun | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked FC Thun | 40c | 247.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked FC Thun | 39c | 230.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FC Thun | 36c | 229$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.56 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed FC Thun | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Thun | 37c | 192.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.21 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed KF Víkingur | 63c | 158.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked KF Víkingur | 65c | 151.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…5478backed FC Thun | 37c | 148.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked KF Víkingur | 59c | 134.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed FC Thun | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FC Thun | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked FC Thun | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed KF Víkingur | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…82fabacked KF Víkingur | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked FC Thun | 42c | 75.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed FC Thun | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed FC Thun | 40c | 64.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FC Thun | 39c | 63.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FC Thun | 38c | 62.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…f538backed KF Víkingur | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Thun | 37c | 52.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…d2c9backed FC Thun | 50c | 50.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed FC Thun | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed KF Víkingur | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FC Thun | 36c | 48.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed KF Víkingur | 53c | 44.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed FC Thun | 37c | 40.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed FC Thun | 36c | 38.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FC Thun | 36c | 35.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed KF Víkingur | 61c | 33.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed FC Thun | 40c | 25.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…f7d2backed FC Thun | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed KF Víkingur | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked FC Thun | 41c | 24.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…17e7backed KF Víkingur | 61c | 18.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…fcc6backed KF Víkingur | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Thun (-1.5)this page
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: FC Thun O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KF Víkingur: Team to AdvanceFC Thun won
- Spread: FC Thun (-2.5)FC Thun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.