Other European Leagues · resolved market
Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac6a9c3fbe96de5d6893f740fa974bfc4c60b935bb7dd7a90cc0fd37371fcd9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,069 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 53c | 18,903$10,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,018.47 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 16,893$7,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,953.52 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 53c | 3,128$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.89 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 47c | 2,332$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.1 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…18f9backed Over | 71c | 1,258$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 1,250$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.81 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 1,132$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.89 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 32c | 853.95$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.12 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 851.19$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.25 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 539$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.67 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 22c | 313.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.81 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 285.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 47c | 175$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 33c | 172.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Under | 48c | 116.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb53e…1aa3backed Over | 54c | 85.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 46c | 81.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 47c | 26.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…2991backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 2.5this page
- Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Estoril Praia vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Casa Pia AC (-2.5)Estoril Praia won
- Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5)Casa Pia AC won
- Spread: Estoril Praia (-2.5)Casa Pia AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.