Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs cincai team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacd6f45a8c90262e589ebb0719ac513a8376bcf7a94cbf013a282cb579b19932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Carstensz, cincai team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked cincai team | 4c | 10,549$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.47 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Carstensz | 66c | 697.24$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.06 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Carstensz | 72c | 185.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Carstensz | 69c | 184.52$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Carstensz | 76c | 163.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26f…ce3bbacked cincai team | 23c | 108.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Carstensz | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…4202backed cincai team | 20c | 75.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Carstensz | 80c | 67.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Carstensz | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Carstensz | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Carstensz | 67c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs cincai team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs cincai team - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.