Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacfdee728a31ee08b71405e77ef1c188e241a38b8bee895cdc92b8da27874627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 945.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…2ea5backed Yes | 3c | 794.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 24c | 361.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 290.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 32c | 195.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 189.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 187.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 149.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 134.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 119.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 69c | 115$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 71c | 98.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 16c | 97.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 85.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…e384backed Yes | 18c | 83.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 81.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 74.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 34c | 74.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 34c | 70.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 32c | 62.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 56.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 40.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 66c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 71c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.