Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e82bd9605bc007d15a2127a520c79d631b88f2e193dd34a0ae712c3c6761d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 4c | 1,460$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 2c | 481.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 4c | 470.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 16c | 423.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.44 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 44c | 348.74$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 279.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 17c | 255.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.74 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 6c | 248.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 13c | 239.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 11c | 220.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.98 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 204.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 200.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 24c | 170.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 47c | 170.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 162.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 14c | 148.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 49c | 111.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 47c | 101.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 95.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 78c | 91.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 78.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…fea7backed No | 16c | 75.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 68.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 74c | 60.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 55.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 35c | 52.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 50c | 50.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 77c | 48.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 44c | 44.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 64c | 42.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 67c | 36.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 72c | 32.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 29.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 51c | 28.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 54c | 26.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.