Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Gael Monfils vs Roman Safiullin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad43a854f48615d212880524717e2f31723a99d6f54b904c43323bf2c724e239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Monfils, Safiullin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Monfils | 0c | 13,117$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Monfils | 52c | 1,950$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Safiullin | 48c | 1,422$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.5 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Safiullin | 47c | 1,022$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.92 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Safiullin | 48c | 820.96$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.9 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Safiullin | 43c | 519.48$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Monfils | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Monfils | 56c | 460.5$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Monfils | 53c | 304$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Monfils | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Monfils | 47c | 280$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Monfils | 39c | 250.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Safiullin | 48c | 205.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.78 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…ad45backed Monfils | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Safiullin | 51c | 41.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Safiullin | 47c | 39.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Safiullin | 50c | 37.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Monfils | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Safiullin | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.