Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad5f7f2ac8fc66774c9b33fd7d0e518aab21f2fa793d6be2041c74e26d2d2261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cee…5a4fbacked Over | 56c | 870$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…4095backed Under | 44c | 770$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 391.36$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 52c | 330$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 45c | 321.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 257.17$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Over | 57c | 250.4$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 55c | 245.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 23c | 219.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 50c | 170.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 165.32$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 54c | 151.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 50c | 68.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 62.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 46c | 37.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 49c | 25.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 46c | 25.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 79c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812d…6bb5backed Over | 50c | 24.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…5fb9backed Over | 50c | 23.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…bc7bbacked Over | 50c | 23.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…ad82backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae64…879fbacked Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…6451backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…97e4backed Under | 50c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…11dfbacked Over | 50c | 20.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…60e7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.