Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed1d8e7ab31ae4c61a5c2eb80993eac87945cec968da2a6a2d8bfbcaf6af661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Over | 0c | 13,150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 12c | 4,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 39c | 2,005$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.35 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,245$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.75 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 77c | 946.19$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.22 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 934.08$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.48 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 12c | 685.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 662.45$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.28 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 38c | 456.42$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.39 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 29c | 380.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 68c | 208.08$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 60c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Over | 27c | 146.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 145.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 127.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 47c | 121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 45c | 111.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Over | 37c | 99.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 98.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 18c | 80.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 75c | 79.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 21c | 65.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 24c | 48.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 45c | 48.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Under | 55c | 28.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.