Champions League · resolved market
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaea5134088e65197bf4f6c89fbd04c544a1df13b23c98a0f487e51edf60a574d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9107…46d6backed Yes | 50c | 485.93$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.49 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 56c | 363.86$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.88 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked No | 58c | 237.92$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 56c | 174.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 56c | 169.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 56c | 152.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 46c | 132.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 53c | 132.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 44c | 98.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 47c | 90.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Yes | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…79c9backed Yes | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d0…0b0fbacked Yes | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 404 | 50.7%205 W · 199 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 611 | 48.3%295 W · 316 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f166backed Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…2278backed Yes | 45c | 40.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 50c | 34.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 526 | 46.8%246 W · 280 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…1349backed Yes | 42c | 34.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…32b5backed Yes | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…49dcbacked No | 58c | 24.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Alexander Sorloth: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Julian Alvarez: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Lamine Yamal: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Marcus Rashford: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.