Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Kaja Juvan vs Caty McNally
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaef0d1c17d27c8103cfcef7df4b608f7da61299a00eba3608499e3239f4b0248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McNallyof Juvan, McNally
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Juvan | 42c | 4,862$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.77 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -16.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Juvan | 38c | 2,742$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.15 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed McNally | 66c | 2,715$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.28 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed McNally | 61c | 2,389$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.89 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked McNally | 65c | 2,333$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.67 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Juvan | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Juvan | 17c | 955.88$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Juvan | 24c | 770.83$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed McNally | 79c | 638$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Juvan | 48c | 610.6$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.52 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Juvan | 41c | 609.85$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Juvan | 44c | 574.67$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.2 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Juvan | 31c | 500$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed McNally | 52c | 437.5$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed McNally | 56c | 361.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked McNally | 55c | 355.56$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…5101backed Juvan | 45c | 355.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed McNally | 56c | 343.97$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Juvan | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Juvan | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked McNally | 59c | 177.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Juvan | 15c | 176.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed McNally | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed McNally | 57c | 109.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed McNally | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Juvan | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Juvan | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Juvan | 48c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.