Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2ddfecd93bfdea73d0fe3a8fab8fb1a00a7da4e92ce77803d8c893f10ee6a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 78c | 1,475$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.3 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d31…53febacked Up | 14c | 1,427$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 2c | 1,153$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed Up | 40c | 574$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.91 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…1343backed Down | 77c | 547$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 25c | 541$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…47f5backed Up | 23c | 500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Up | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 77c | 194.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Down | 70c | 117$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Down | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…809cbacked Up | 52c | 96.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Up | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…4e58backed Up | 40c | 54.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…5437backed Down | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Down | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Up | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…8883backed Down | 63c | 39.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…d279backed Down | 73c | 29.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…6176backed Down | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Up | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.