Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf60fa979c30ab769b28c105479b79eba2f2cf3b920e29b7949e315a56047aaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 0c | 17,694$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 72c | 1,508$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.96 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 48c | 978.33$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.33 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…6f16backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 961.61$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 906.81$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.45 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 881.9$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.6 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…b3d1backed Aurora | 35c | 523.28$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Aurora | 44c | 455.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora | 50c | 400.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.13 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 20c | 353.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.86 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 257$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 49c | 250.69$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec65…cf87backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 222.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 45c | 220.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Aurora | 36c | 175$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 163.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Aurora | 27c | 146.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…2f2abacked Aurora | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9f…44bfbacked Aurora | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Aurora | 39c | 43.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…67dbbacked Aurora | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…1479backed Aurora | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 20.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | -22.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.